Posted by Kate Murphy on March 15th, 2007
As the need for oncologists and other cancer health professionals grows, there may be too few to meet the demand. A workforce study commissioned by the American Society of Clinical Oncology projects a significant shortage of oncologists and gynecological oncologists by 2020.
While the US population is growing and aging, the oncology workforce is growing more slowly. Given the numbers of doctors expected to enter the field and those retiring, the total number of oncologists in 2020 is projected to be 12,500 — an acute shortfall of 2,550 to 4,080.
Between now and 2020, the demand for oncology services is expected to rise by 48% given a larger population and more adults over 65, who are more likely to need cancer care. At the same time, the supply of oncologists will increase by 20% and the capacity for oncology visits to increase even less at 14%.
In addition to the ASCO-commissioned study carried out by the Association of American Medical Colleges Center for Workforce Studies, another analysis by Richard Cooper MD at the University of Pennsylvania based on economic trends found similar shortages. Cooper’s study concluded:
This analysis, which is based on economic and demographic trends, projects a 36% deficit in the number of medical oncologists relative to the demand for care in 2020.
As well as more cancer patients, there are a growing number of cancer survivors who also need care. In 1971 there were 3 million cancer survivors in the United States. By 2001, the number of survivors had more than tripled to 10 million.
Michael Goldstein MD, chair of the ASCO Workforce in Oncology Task Force noted that this is not just a problem of medical oncologists,
It is very important that the results of the study are looked at not as a problem only for medical oncology. It really presents a challenge for the whole cancer care delivery system, including nurses, surgeons, radiation oncologists, pharmacists, and anyone who participates in the care of patients with cancer.
The full report Forecasting the Supply of and Demand for Oncologists is available online.